Usually with turn
to journalists, opinion polls, and pundits to seek out prdctns
of outcomes of such historical significance as the choosing
of the next Pope. Still there are those who think that online
betting sites are more likely to give you the best predictions.
If you think this seems strange, consider the results for
the last presidential election. At that time online betting
sites consistently predicted Bush as having the lead. This
may be a good indication of the predictive strength of such
sites with regard to determining the outcome of events.
Betting sites such as BetFaire, function as a place where
players are allowed to place bets one against the other.
Although most of the betting done at BetFaire is devoted
to horseracing, betting on the outcome of the papacy election
stands as a special market.
This is in fact the case for many online gambling sites
that are offering themselves as a special market. Another
example is Pinnaclesports.com, which allows players to bet
on the next pope, but in addition bets can be placed on his
age, his nationality, and even how long it will take until
one is selected.
The situation in the United States is that there are no
bookmakers at Las Vegas casinos, or for that matter at Atlantic
City casinos, placing wagers on who will be the next pontiff.
Maybe this is because no American Cardinals have been nominated.
Even though the case for Ireland is that Cardinal, Dougal
Maguire, also doesn’t have a chance, the Irish have
been betting heavily on who the next Pontiff will be. Many
sites are putting Italy’s Dionigi
Tettamanzi is the favorite Cardinal for election. This
is apparent at Paddypwer.com, as well as many other sites.
This reflects existing polls that state that Tettamanzi is
the 9 to 2 to 11 to 4 odds favorite to win.
Francis Arinze of Nigeria is the next Cardinal in line
for getting elected with odds of 15 to 2. Next in line after
him is O. Rodiguez Maradiaga of Honduras. The odds of him
being elected are 8 to 1 rating. Claudio Hummes of Brazil
also has an 8 to 1 rating. The rating for J. Ratizinger of
Germany is 29 to 1 rating.
Since there are so many Cardinals running, the betting
on who will be the next pontiff is gaining daily. BetFair
reports that their site has been accepting bets on who the
next Pope will be for the last 18 months, but only recently
has any serious activity developed. BetFair claims that interest
is growing with an estimated $70,000 already having been
wagered.
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